全球低压电机市场展望

Since the third quarter of 2014, the low-voltage motor market has struggled amid the numerous economic and political headwinds. In fact, according to the latest IHS Markit information, the global low-voltage motor market will decline nearly 13 percent, from $11.8 billion in sales in 2015 to $10.3 billion in 2017.

自2014年第三季度以来，低压电机市场一直历经种种经济和政治动荡。实际上，根据IHS Markit的*新报告，全球低压电机市场将下降约13％，销售额从2015年的118亿美元回落到2017年的103亿美元。 

Despite this challenging environment, there are opportunities for motor suppliers that can adapt to the impending technological trends suppliers require. For example, motor end-users are increasingly interested in energy-efficient motors that will live longer and reduce full lifecycle costs. As the industrial internet of things (IIoT) continues to grow in customer recognition and adoption, motor manufacturers are also starting to find ways to leverage this trend to offset weak sales. 

虽然市场环境充满挑战，但对那些能够适应即将到来的技术发展趋势的电机供应商而言，市场机会仍在。例如，终端用户对高效节能电机的关注度越来越高，因为高效电机的使用寿命更长，全生命周期成本得以降低。随着工业物联网（IIoT）的认可度和应用率不断上升，电机制造商也开始想办法利用这一趋势以抵消销售的疲软。

While there are reasons to be optimistic, the current political turmoil certainly harms growth prospects for the entire industrial automation equipment market throughout the next two-to-three years. As the global economy adjusts and recovers from shocking events, such as the British exit of the European Union and stalling oil prices, the low-voltage motor market revenue will decline very slightly, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of negative 0.2 percent from 2015 to 2020. However, a strong recovery is expected to begin in 2018.

尽管我们有理由感到乐观，但目前的政治动荡无疑损害了未来两到三年整个工业自动化设备市场的增长前景。随着全球经济从英国脱欧和油价停滞等重大事件得到调整和复苏，低压电机市场的收入将轻微下降，从2015年至2020年的年复合增长率为负0.2%，但预计从2018年开始强劲复苏。 

While heavy industries exposed to oil and gas investment levels are not currently good areas for motor growth, there are still several industry sectors that have outperformed – or that will outperform -- the market average in the short-term. For example, the U.S. housing market is expected to experience strong growth, as is non-residential construction spending, which bodes well for motors sold into construction, infrastructure, and HVAC applications.

尽管受制于石油和天然气投资水平的重工业目前并非电机的增长领域，仍有几个行业表现亮眼，或者说在短期内好于市场平均水平。例如，美国房地产市场预计将强劲增长，作为非住宅建筑开支，应用于施工、基础设施和暖通空调的电机销售有着良好的势头。

A fast-growing population and rapid urbanization is also expected to cause motor shipments for food and beverage, water and wastewater, and power sectors to outperform the market average. In general the discrete manufacturing (machine builder) sectors are forecast to perform better than the process manufacturing (end-user) sectors.

快速增长的人口和快速的城市化也有望引发食品饮料、水处理，以及电力行业的电机出货量跑赢市场平均水平。总体而言，预计离散制造（机器制造商）行业比过程制造（*终用户）行业的表现要好。

After accounting for more than 26 percent of revenues in 2015, IE1 (standard efficiency) motors are forecast to comprise 25 percent of global low-voltage motor market revenue in 2016, and 16 percent by 2020. These products are sold mainly in the emerging markets that have yet to adopt any type of efficiency regulations; however, many leading suppliers are still successfully selling these motors in the United States, Germany and other developed countries.

2015年，IE1（标准能效）电机占全球低压电机市场总营收的26％以上，预计2016年这一数字为25％，到2020年将下降到16％。IE1产品主要销往那些尚未采取任何能效法规的新兴市场，不过也有许多领先的供应商仍然在美国、德国和其他发达国家成功出售此类电机。

As emerging and developed regions continue to push for more efficient motors, IE2 (high efficiency), IE3 (premium efficiency), and IE4 (super-premium efficiency) motors will continue to experience growth with revenue CAGRs of 1.6 percent, 4.8 percent, and 11.3 percent, respectively. It is worth noting, however, that IE4 motors accounted for slightly more than 1 percent of total motor market revenues. Therefore, it will take a long time for this technology to be considered a dominant customer trend.

随着新兴市场和发达地区对更高效电机的继续推动，IE2（高能效），IE3（超高能效），以及IE4（超超高能效）电机有望持续增长，预计年复合增长率分别为1.6％、4.8％，以及11.3％。值得注意的是，IE4电机仅占电机市场总营收的1%多点，因此，这项技术要想成为客户的主导产品，仍将有很长的路要走。 

Despite the ominous forecast for low-voltage motors through 2020, there are still ample opportunities for manufacturers to maintain -- and even grow -- their existing client base, through the adoption of the technological advancements end-users are beginning to require more frequently. Acquisitions and strategic partnerships, in conjunction with increased research and development investments, have allowed the leading motor manufacturers to better position themselves for the future. Even though the low-voltage motor market is not currently thriving, today’s technological developments could be the norm for motor users in the near future -- but only the companies that can adapt will be prepared for such rapid changes.

虽说到2020年低压电机的展望不佳，但通过采纳终端用户开始愈加需要的技术改进，制造商仍然有足够的机会来维持——甚至扩大他们现有的客户群。在加大研发投入的同时，通过收购和战略合作，让领先的电机制造商能够更好地定位自己的未来。即使目前的低压电机市场算不上繁荣发展，但今天的技术发展在不久将来可以成为电机用户的标准规范——不过只有那些能适应这种快速变化的公司才能有所准备。